Housing experts questioned in Zillow’s latest Home Price Expectations Survey are anticipating another downturn in the next three years, but one set off by a “geopolitical crisis,” not the real estate market. There is a 73 percent chance a recession will happen by 2020, according to the quarterly survey, and of the more than 100 respondents, the majority expect the slump to majorly affect housing in Miami and San Francisco—and Los Angeles and New York, to a lesser extent—but only moderately impact the market as a whole.

 

“That experts believe geopolitical crisis is the most likely next trigger for the next recession is a sign of the times we’re living in,” says Dr. Svenja Gudell, chief economist at Zillow. “Historically, geopolitical events rarely cause a sustained recession, and other contributing factors, such as oil price shocks, play a more predominant role. We’ve enjoyed eight years of sustained growth following the last recession, but the housing market is still recovering in many ways. The housing market is not expected to cause the next recession, but some major markets could see some collateral damage.”

 

The housing experts amended their home value forecast from previous surveys, projecting values to rise 5.1 percent in 2017. Still, homebuyers could see relief in the coming years, says Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics, which conducted the survey with Zillow.

 

“Stronger short-term expectations for U.S. home prices are a sign of the persistent inventory challenges facing first-time and move-up homebuyers, but experts’ long-term predictions suggest that buyers will have more bargaining power in the years ahead,” Loebs says. “Incomes growing faster than home values is a promising sign for renters hoping to become homeowners—but they should still tread carefully in markets that have seen sharp price increases in recent years.”